A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
